There has been much talk in the news about forecasts – and while most have been wrong they are still more accurate than Fortune Cookies!
Thanks to satellites, computer modeling and doppler radar, weather forecasts are more reliable than ever before. Yet despite those advances, they are still guessing – educated guesses to be sure – but guessing about what will happen, when it will happen, and where it will happen. I live in central Massachusetts and between late November and early April, most winter storms track up the east coast and when a storm tracks a few miles east, west or south of the New England coastline it determines whether it will bring, rain, snow, ice or a combination, and if mostly snow, how much snow to a given city or town. They get it right – a lot – but they get it wrong often enough too.
We have also seen 19 months of COVID-19 case, hospitalization and fatality predictions which have been totally and consistently wrong. Two weeks to stop the spread has turned into vaccine and mask mandates that show no sign of going away, especially when they treat each new variant like the pandemic is starting anew.
We get economic forecasts, employment forecasts, and of course the most famous of all forecasts during October, political polling. We know the polls are are always off by enough points to get the results wrong.
With all of these forecasts having the chance to be completely wrong, it makes me wonder about the way sales leaders and CEOs react to sales forecasts. After all, should we expect anything different when it comes to sales?